Author: Shenchao TechFlow

"They are lively, but I have nothing."

For most people, this sentence perfectly describes the recent popularity of the 3A blockchain game "Big Time."

After the success of SocialFi projects like Friend.Tech and Star Arena, the market is also looking forward to GameFi leading the next wave of excitement.

From the performance in the secondary market, it seems that Big Time has smoothly taken the baton: after the token was listed on OKX, the opening price was 0.01, and it once reached an astonishing increase of over 20 times.

However, if you observe social media, in contrast to the soaring prices is the awkwardness experienced by market participants -- unable to enter, unable to exit, low liquidity, high costs.

Unable to enter, a large number of players who did not participate early are seeking an activation code, and the hardware requirements of the game have also deterred some low-spec players;

Unable to exit, players who are already farming gold find that withdrawals require KYC, with strict rules and a waiting period for review;

Low liquidity, players who choose to participate in the secondary market face low liquidity, and early limit orders do not trade smoothly;

High costs, players who later want to farm gold need to gather in-game items for farming, and the cost price continues to rise.

At the same time, as we are more easily attracted by the excitement of price increases, we also overlook the different interests and games of various market participants behind it --- When blockchain games truly become 3A, have the main gameplay, participation thresholds, profit distribution, and operational models really undergone a qualitative change?

Eileen Chang once left a famous quote in "Genius Dream" --- Life is a gorgeous robe, crawling with lice.

Big Time, perhaps, is also like this.

Big Production, Old Flavor

It is undeniable that Big Time has improved several levels in production quality and presentation compared to many other blockchain games.

If you have watched game live streams or played it yourself, you can feel that the overall visual experience of the game is basically no different from traditional MMORPGs. Smooth graphics, silky movements, mature character growth design, and equipment elements… everything is leaning towards high-spec production games.

From a gameplay perspective, the core loop of the game revolves around experiencing character growth: accept quests -- fight -- acquire resources/equipment/experience/skills -- grow and level up -- acquire better resources/equipment/experience/skills -- challenge more difficult quests.

And within this core game loop, the old flavor of blockchain games still remains --- You can play for free, but there are thresholds for farming gold.

Free players can basically experience the same content during the game, but they rarely have access to the gold farming part. Due to the low drop rate of NFT items in normal monster fights and regular dungeons, ordinary players need to invest a lot of time to grind for a small chance of drops.

At the same time, free players, due to the lack of NFT items, will not generate Big Time tokens through their gameplay.

For paying players, everything points back to that familiar old loop: calculating resource investment and planning token output.

From the official game introduction and relevant reports from first-class research, a player wanting to farm gold needs at least the following purchases:

• Space NFT, similar to a personal space where you can place NFTs and items related to gold farming;

• Hourglass, which must be equipped to produce Big Time tokens;

• Time Crystal, which must be consumed to craft the aforementioned hourglass;

• Time Guardian NFT, similar to a "condition" crafting tool for gold farming, where you can recharge the hourglass with Time Crystals when it runs out.

The above items are all clearly priced and subject to market fluctuations, and there is a design for repeated consumption and purchase.

For players who are directly aiming to farm gold, whether it is 3A or not has become less important; it is more about calculating a math problem: racing against time to calculate the optimal input-output ratio and being the first to mine and sell.

The Carnival of the Few, the Threshold for the Many

It is well known that Big Time is not a new game; it has been two years since its initial release. But why has it recently gained so much attention?

On October 10, Big Time launched its preseason event, allowing players to farm gold for token rewards in the game, and participating in the event also grants future airdrop rewards; coupled with the token being listed on exchanges, its popularity naturally surged in a short period.

However, participating in the game is not that simple.

The game is currently not open to everyone, and farming gold requires a certain amount of financial investment and understanding of the rules.

Even if you just want to experience the game without farming gold, you still need activation codes from a few streamers and KOLs. Thus, while the game's popularity skyrockets, a large number of ordinary users are desperately seeking entry tickets.

This situation seems more like a result of marketing strategy; the difficulty in obtaining codes only enhances the game's hot performance, resembling a hunger marketing trend.

At the same time, for the few early players who have already entered the game, the rewards from playing are considerable. Twitter shows that some KOLs have shared their specific investment and return situations in Big Time, and based on calculations from other players, it is generally possible to break even in 1-2 days (Note: As of the time of writing, Big Time has modified the in-game drop output mechanism, and the actual break-even time may be longer).

It must be said that this kind of investment that leads to breaking even and then generating profits easily reminds one of the blockchain game craze from a year ago. But the difference is that this time, the carnival belongs only to a few, while the threshold belongs to the majority.

In addition to activation codes, to participate in the preseason, one must either directly invest funds to purchase in-game SPACE NFTs and passes or have been an early player of Big Time.

The former means a financial threshold, and under the influence of promotional effects and token price increases, it is foreseeable that the prices of SPACE and passes will rise;

The latter means an experience and time threshold, and not everyone has had a deep connection with Big Time before.

Moreover, one point that many people may not realize is that the term 3A actually brings a significant hardware threshold.

The official Big Time website shows that the minimum configuration for the game is a GTX 1060 graphics card and at least 50GB of hard drive space. For regular gamers, this requirement seems trivial;

But for cryptocurrency users, entry-level gaming graphics cards and large space requirements may make their main work laptops feel inadequate, and may also amplify their memory cleanliness obsession --- being careful not to connect to the internet or click randomly, suddenly stuffing in a non-open-source game client is bound to cause anxiety.

This hardware configuration requirement gives studios a unique advantage, and their carnival does not come from the joy of gaming, but purely from the satisfaction of gold farming profits.

When a game first creates a threshold for insiders, how can we talk about mass adoption?

If the main target of the game is not insiders, and if you click on Twitch live streams, you will find that the audience watching the game is not that many, then the current game's expansion efforts may not be satisfactory.

At this point, we observe a clear sense of disconnection: the game is booming, but only a few can play; the token price is eye-catching, but the gold farming threshold is high for cryptocurrency users.

The Calculated Plans of Project Parties, Market Makers, and Exchanges

Those who want to farm gold cannot enter, and those who have farmed gold cannot exit.

Although the game can achieve quick break-even, cashing out the gold farming profits requires passing Big Time's KYC review.

According to some player feedback, the current KYC has a review period of 3-5 days, which means that withdrawals will be delayed (Note: As of the time of writing, the KYC review speed has improved).

You earn, but you haven't fully earned.

From an asset perspective, when a large number of gold farming tokens cannot be withdrawn, the source of mining and selling is restricted, which means a reduction in the selling pressure of BIGTIME in the market, a good strategy for the project party to maintain token price stability.

However, after several days of review, the value of BIGTIME obtained by gold farmers may also face rapid dilution, and the paper profits may need to be discounted. At the same time, due to the rising prices of NFTs required for gold farming, changes in drop rate rules, and more participants joining, the input-output ratio for gold farming is also decreasing.

So, will the situation be better if you buy BIGTIME tokens directly without farming gold?

From the price perspective alone, the token's price increased 20 times within two days of its listing, and short-term quick in-and-out is certainly a good choice.

But the premise is that you need to find trading partners and channels.

According to research by on-chain analyst Yu Jin, BIGTIME is currently highly controlled, with market makers holding 90 million circulating tokens. Under the premise that KYC review delays the withdrawal of gold farming tokens, the overall liquidity of the token is very limited; based on the price at the time of writing, the overall circulating market value is around 30 million USD (data sourced from Coinmarketcap).

In this case, placing limit orders to buy tokens may not go smoothly due to insufficient liquidity, and concentrated liquidity may mean more control space for market makers, guiding rapid price increases and stabilizing them.

And to buy BIGTIME, you also need a little trick.

Currently, the largest liquidity for the token is on OKX, but if you search for BIGTIME directly in the Asia region, you will find that no results come up, and the spot trading entry is closed.

The way to unlock the entry is to obtain some BIGTIME from elsewhere to deposit into OKX's token receiving address.

BIGTIME opened in the mainstream trading hours in the Asia region, but there was no trading entry on OKX; then BIGTIME was listed on Coinbase during the mainstream trading hours in the US (Beijing time in the early morning), and the price surged.

Players who caught the wave were certainly lucky, but due to timing and entry reasons, most players likely missed this rapid surge.

At the same time, when the new token brings traffic to OKX and Coinbase, Binance naturally will not be idle.

On the evening of the 12th, Binance also launched perpetual contracts for BIGTIME. However, it is worth noting that currently there is no spot, only contracts.

This strategy of only launching contract trading products easily reminds one of Binance's similar approach to the Blur token.

At that time, there were also circulating opinions about the lack of fundamentals to support the listing of the spot for the Blur token;

Today's BIGTIME, under high FDV, low circulation, and extreme control, may also lead Binance to hesitate to list the spot in the short term for similar considerations; the specific decision details remain unknown;

But choosing to launch contracts at a nearby time point has one clear implication:

For players participating in gold farming but unable to withdraw, contracts are beneficial for shorting and also help them hedge against the risk of price drops when they can sell.

Where there is demand, there is a market; not listing spot but earning trading fees and liquidation fees through contracts can also allow them to share in the new token's popularity.

Thus, in the wave of Big Time's launch, we can see that project parties, market makers, and exchanges all have their own calculations.

The KYC rules of the project party inadvertently achieve the effect of stabilizing selling pressure, market makers concentrate their chips to create a lifting effect and control the market, one exchange takes the lead in listing spot to attract traffic, while another exchange attempts to follow up with contracts to share in the profits…

When everything seems to be carefully planned and cautiously implemented, will you be the happy one making money in the market?

Tools, Just Tools

From being uninteresting to interesting, from the concept of 3A to the actual game, GameFi projects have indeed undergone changes in quality.

But their core economic models and operational methods seem to be old tricks, not fundamentally different from projects from a few years ago.

In the traditional market, games, as widely consumed products, often have their content as the core of everything;

But in a game involving studios, project parties, market makers, and exchanges, everything revolves around interests, and the game itself seems to be merely a tool for cashing out profits.

After quickly obtaining sufficient financial returns through NFT presales, from a business perspective, it is not a cost-effective deal to refine and polish the game further;

Profits need to be cashed out, investments need to be exited, bull markets need to be waited for; what would you do?

Therefore, we cannot adopt an idealistic mindset to view the current blockchain games, nor can we demand all gaming experiences from the perspective of players.

In a multi-party participation scenario, a tool-based mindset remains a realistic and reasonable choice --- recognize it, utilize it, and then preferably forget it.

And if you still choose to participate without understanding, may you not be the tool that others profit from.