Reviewing the NFT cycle rotation, who is rising against the trend?

Author: NFTGo

Like the cryptocurrency market, NFTs also have their own rotation cycle. In November 2022, the NFT market experienced a downturn, with daily trading volume around 5k ETH. During these two small bear market cycles, after more than half a year of changes, how did the top NFTs perform? Which NFTs declined? And which NFTs rose against the trend?

Looking at the average holding rate and listing rate of top NFTs, Degods had the highest average holding quantity, approximately 3.45, followed by Meebits at around 3. CryptoPunks had the highest listing rate at about 10.81%, followed by CloneX, while the lowest listing rates were for Veefriends and Meebits.

Next, we selected blue-chip collections with similar floor prices around November 2022 to compare their trends over the past six months. It can be observed that the floor price of CryptoPunks remains above 30 ETH, while Bored Ape Yacht Club has reached above 20 ETH. The range between 6-20 ETH has become a blank area. Projects with floor prices around 4+ ETH include MAYC, DeGods, Azuki, Captainz, Memeland, Milady, and Pudgy Penguins.

Among these projects, Pudgy Penguins is the only one with a significant increase in floor price, approximately 47.39%. On the other hand, both “Invisible Friends” and “Moonbirds” saw the largest declines in floor price.

CryptoPunks & Bored Ape Yacht Club

CryptoPunks and BAYC were both leading projects in the 50E+ range last year, but both experienced declines as the market entered a bear phase. Over the past six months, CryptoPunks dropped from 64.96 ETH, a decrease of 26.31%, to 47.87 ETH, while BAYC fell from 55.89 ETH, a decline of 56.36%, to 24.39 ETH.

From the floor prices, it is evident that CryptoPunks has shown a more stable trend compared to BAYC. The floor price of CryptoPunks has gradually decreased with the overall market sentiment, while BAYC has experienced significant fluctuations and periodic increases during its decline.

The volatility of BAYC can be attributed to the ongoing development of the BAYC ecosystem and news releases, as each new announcement impacts market trends. Additionally, some BAYC NFTs have been used for lending. These factors have led to BAYC's trading volume being significantly higher than that of CryptoPunks, with its trading volume being six times that of the latter, and the volume from whales being five times that of CryptoPunks.

The metrics of these two projects undoubtedly represent the overall market trend. Whether it is the stable decline of CryptoPunks or the volatile decline of BAYC, both will influence the overall market sentiment.

Mutant Ape Yacht Club & Azuki

MAYC and Azuki, which were blue-chip NFT projects in the 10 ETH price range over six months ago, have now both dropped below 5 ETH. MAYC fell from 10.60 ETH, a decline of 56.70%, to 4.59 ETH, while Azuki dropped from 9.36 ETH, a decrease of 59.94%, to 3.75 ETH.

Overall, MAYC has shown a downward trend amidst continuous fluctuations. The floor price movements of MAYC are closely related to the price changes of BAYC. In most cases, when BAYC rises or falls, MAYC tends to follow with relatively smaller price fluctuations.

Before June 23, Azuki's floor price showed a slow upward trend. From November 17, 2022, to June 23, 2023, Azuki rose from 9.36 ETH to 16.95 ETH, an increase of 81.09%, thanks to its strong community culture and continuous new initiatives and highlights from the Azuki team over the past six months. Additionally, Azuki and Beanz collaborated with many brands and announced the “Follow The Azuki Rabbit” event in LA on June 23, along with the launch of new NFTs.

However, this positive momentum came to a halt on the 23rd. The newly launched Elementals were criticized for their lack of originality in design, leading to some whales and Azuki holders selling off and exiting.

VeeFriends & Doodles & CloneX & Moonbirds

VeeFriends, Doodles, CloneX, and Moonbirds, which were blue-chip NFTs in the 5 ETH range over six months ago, have all dropped to around 1 ETH. VeeFriends fell from 5.99 ETH, a decline of 71.79%, to 1.69 ETH; Doodles dropped from 5.6 ETH, a decrease of 75.54%, to 1.37 ETH; CloneX fell from 5.99 ETH, a decline of 79.97%, to 1.20 ETH; and Moonbirds dropped from 6.77 ETH, a decrease of 82.27%, to 1.20 ETH.

These four NFT projects have all declined in the context of the ongoing downturn in the NFT market over the past six months. In terms of percentage decline, VeeFriends experienced the smallest fluctuation, while Moonbirds saw the largest.

Meebits & Pudgy Penguins & CoolCats & World of Women & Invisible Friends

Meebits, Pudgy Penguins, CoolCats, World of Women, and Invisible Friends, which were blue-chip NFTs in the 1-4 ETH range over six months ago, have all dropped below 1 ETH, except for Pudgy Penguins. Meebits fell from 2.55 ETH, a decline of 62.20%, to 0.96 ETH; CoolCats dropped from 1.94 ETH, a decrease of 67.32%, to 0.63 ETH; World of Women fell from 1.51 ETH, a decline of 59.43%, to 0.61 ETH; while Invisible Friends dropped from 2.62 ETH, a decrease of 86.76%, to 0.35 ETH. Pudgy Penguins, on the other hand, rose against the trend by 47%, from 2.49 ETH to 3.67 ETH. In terms of percentage decline, World of Women experienced the smallest fluctuation, while Invisible Friends saw the largest.

It is noteworthy that Pudgy Penguins is the only collection among these projects that rose against the trend. After some fluctuations in December 2022, it stabilized and saw a slight rise and fall again in June. After the NFT market entered a bear phase at the end of 2022, Pudgy Penguins also went through a period of downturn. Internal team issues and operational challenges led to difficulties for the project, with the floor price dropping to a low point. The entry of serial entrepreneur Luca Netz marked a new chapter for Pudgy Penguins, establishing an all-star board and injecting more experience and resources into the project. Additionally, through the “Phygital” series, it combined physical and digital experiences, launching physical toy products.