Electric Capital's latest report: Monthly active developers exceed 21,000, and mature developers continue to contribute actively

Original Author ：Enrique @eherrerosj

Compiled by ： Qianwen ， ChainCatcher

Based on over 140 million cryptocurrency submissions, we draw the following conclusions:

As of June 1, 2023, there are 21,300 active developers each month:

• Down 22% compared to June 2022 (one year ago).
• Up 25% compared to June 2021 (over two years).
• Up 92% compared to June 2020 (over three years).

Key Points Overview

• The departing developers are mainly newcomers to the cryptocurrency field (those who have been in the field for less than 12 months) and developers who contributed less than 20% of the submission volume.
• In contrast, developers who have been working in cryptocurrency for over 12 months continue to build, contributing over 80% of the submission volume.
• Since the market peak, the influx of new developers has slowed down.

Decrease in the Number of Developers Exploring Cryptocurrency

We segment the monthly active developers by comparing the time of their first and last submissions:

• New Developers: Developers working in cryptocurrency for less than 1 year.
• Emerging Developers: Engaged in cryptocurrency for 1-2 years.
• Mature Developers: Engaged in cryptocurrency for over 2 years.

The number of emerging developers has increased, while the number of mature developers remains stable. The decline in monthly active developers last year was mainly due to newcomers.

From June 2022 to June 2023:

• The number of new developers decreased by 48% (7,730 developers).
• Emerging developers increased by 44% (1,650 developers).
• Mature developers increased by 2% (150 developers).

Reasons for the Decrease in Newcomers

Looking at the number of new developers each month, there were 2,900 new developers entering cryptocurrency in May 2023:

• Down 20% compared to February 2023 (3 months ago).
• Down 42% compared to November 2022 (6 months ago).
• Down 50% compared to May 2022 (12 months ago).
• Up 45% compared to November 2021 (from the market peak).

New developers joining in 2023 have not stayed in the field for long.

The following chart shows how long most new developers choose to leave the cryptocurrency field after entering (retention rate <20%) since January 2021:

• 2021: 6-10 months
• 2022: 3-6 months
• 2023 (so far): 3-4 months

Overall, the retention rate in 2023 has remained stable. However, if we look at the data starting from 2015, we find that developers who joined during bear markets leave more quickly. New developers in 2023 are leaving faster than those in 2022 or 2021, which is typical in bear markets.

Market cycles are the reason why newcomers, emerging, and mature cryptocurrency developers dominate at different times in the market.

Newcomers dominated during market peaks:

• 6 months after the market peak in January 2018 (June 2018)
• 7 months after the market peak in November 2021 (June 2022): accounted for 70% of the dominance

Once entering a bear market, developers who have worked in cryptocurrency for over a year (emerging and mature developers) will dominate, mainly during:

• 24 months after the market peak in January 2018 (January 2020): accounted for 60% of the dominance
• 18 months after the ATH in November 2021 (June 2023): accounted for 60% of the dominance

Although the overall number of monthly active developers has decreased, the departing developers do not play a key role .

If a developer has not contributed within two months, we can consider that the developer has "left" the cryptocurrency field. Developers who stopped contributing after March 2023 account for less than 20% of the submission volume.

Developers who continued to contribute code in April and May 2023 exhibited the following characteristics:

• Contributed the majority of the code
• More active days
• Worked in cryptocurrency for a longer time

First, developers who contributed in April and May 2023 accounted for the majority of code submissions (over 80%).

Second, developers who contributed in April and May had longer active periods.

From the median, we can see:

• Continuing developers: 13 weeks active
• Departing developers: 2 weeks active

Third, developers who contributed in April and May have been in cryptocurrency for a longer time.

Median days developers have been in cryptocurrency:

• Continuing developers: 19 weeks
• Departing developers: 8 weeks

Ecosystem Dynamics

The ecosystems with monthly development volume growth from June 2022 to June 2023 are:

• Osmosis: +56%
• Sui: +159%
• Aptos: +90%
• Ton: +102%
• Optimism: +27%
• Aztec Protocol: +267%

Summary

• The number of monthly active developers decreased by 22% year-on-year.
• Departing developers are newcomers to cryptocurrency, contributing less than 20% of submissions.
• Developers who have worked in cryptocurrency for over 12 months continue to build, contributing over 80% of the submission volume.
• The number of developers in Osmosis, Sui, Aptos, Ton, Optimism, and Aztec Protocol has seen year-on-year growth.