The community consensus is fading, and these blue-chip NFTs are facing a reshuffling crisis

Written by: Nancy, PANews

Currently, a subtle differentiation is emerging among blue-chip NFTs. Even though they once triggered a Gas War, many leading NFT projects have struggled to establish a long-term brand narrative and community empowerment growth loop, making it difficult for their value to sustain. The continuous decline in prices and trading volumes reflects this issue.

Trading volume and average price both decline, most holders remain "diamond hands"

Despite the NFT market experiencing a collective cooling after rapid development, it remains one of the most prominent and important components in the crypto space. As the types of NFT products become increasingly diverse, they have also been categorized into different tiers based on market popularity and potential. Among them, some NFTs have become blue-chip projects due to strong community consensus and operational strategies, capturing a significant portion of the market share.

According to NFTGO data, as of March 21, the total market capitalization of NFTs (only Ethereum) has dropped from a peak of over $33.25 billion to the current $22.17 billion, a decline of 33.3%; monthly trading volume has fallen from a peak of approximately $3.53 billion to $1.01 billion, a decrease of over 71.3%. The total number of NFT holders has risen to over 4.28 million, but the recent growth pace has clearly slowed. Although the growth rate over the past year was 113.3%, it has only increased by 1.9% since the beginning of this year. Meanwhile, the number of monthly traders has also seen a significant drop, falling from over 414,000 at its peak last year to 186,000, a decline of about 55%. Additionally, the change in the number of buyers and sellers shows a slight decrease in the number of buyers over the past year, while the number of sellers has surged, indicating a significant decline in market purchasing power, with investors more willing to sell their NFT assets.

The overall sluggishness of the NFT market is not only related to the bear market in the crypto space but also largely due to the slowdown in market activities of blue-chip projects and capital flight.

According to NFTGO data, the blue-chip project index has dropped by over 54.7% in the past year. Meanwhile, based on the sales data of the top ten blue-chip projects, this segment of NFTs accounts for 33.8% of the overall market, but their average price has decreased by 46.9%, and trading volume has dropped by over 13.3%. Among them, the average selling price of Art Blocks, CLONE X, Moonbirds, and Doodles has fallen by more than 70%.

In terms of the number of blue-chip holders, most NFTs have seen little change, with only Bored Ape Yacht Club, Mutant Ape Yacht Club, Azuki, and CLONE X experiencing significant declines. However, most holders of these blue-chip projects are "diamond hands," with 75.1% of users holding for more than three months on average.

As the backbone of the NFT market, blue-chip NFTs are seen as long-term investments that can generate stable returns, but given the current pessimistic market performance, will holders continue to hold for the long term? Recent signs indicate that many blue-chip NFTs' business models and operational strategies are causing dissatisfaction among community members.

Multiple blue-chip projects trigger community dissatisfaction

From the initial ideological experiments to the disruption of business models, the exponential growth in market capitalization proves external recognition of NFT value capture. However, the recent shrinkage in market capitalization also indicates that the market has raised higher demands for innovative NFT gameplay.

Although blue-chip NFT projects hold a considerable advantage, the gap has widened. For example, Yuga Labs has built an IP empire and granted holders complete IP commercial usage rights, with several of its project series occupying multiple positions in the blue-chip NFT sector. In contrast, NFTs like Moonbirds, Doodles, and CLONEX are facing skepticism from holders regarding their operations and business models after brief successes.

For instance, after launching multiple series of NFT projects and open copyright initiatives, Moonbirds still struggles to regain its former glory, with uninspired gameplay raising community doubts; Doodles has not fully granted IP rights directly to individuals, and its revenue from merchandise sales is capped at $100,000, which has led to questions about its Web3 credentials. The recent announcement of launching the Doodles 2 project on the Flow blockchain has further dissatisfied investors, and after its founder Jordan Castro declared that Doodles would evolve from an "NFT project" into a "leading media franchise," community members criticized him for ignoring holder rights, sparking a sell-off; the NFT streetwear brand RTFKT Studios, under the well-known sports brand Nike, faced a sell-off due to various controversial actions, such as airdropping discount vouchers to NFT holders and the inability to redeem physical shoes in non-US regions.

The culture and values of the community determine the vitality of a project, and there are numerous examples of how community culture influences project success or failure. For NFT projects, long-term inaction will ultimately lead to market elimination, as few can consistently hold a winning script in a volatile market. For example, Blur's liquidity attack reshaping the trading market landscape is a good illustration. Currently, the application scenarios for NFTs are continuously expanding, whether it be new narratives like Bitcoin NFTs or AI-generated NFT projects, or new gameplay such as NFTFI and dynamic NFTs, all accelerating the pace of market share erosion, indicating that the NFT market is facing a reshuffle.

In summary, what distinguishes NFTs from mere images is the underlying value, and while community members capture value, they also support the project's inherent value. For these blue-chip projects, if they cannot find new business or development models to achieve differentiated transformation and return project value to the community, being replaced is merely a matter of time.