Characteristics of 61 hundredfold projects, seeking the next cycle alpha

Author: Rocky

Source: @Rocky_Bitcoin From 2020 (with some from 2019) to the entire bull market cycle of 2021, 61 projects with over 100x returns emerged among the top 600 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.

Today, let's take a look at their characteristics and attributes, and what insights they might provide for the upcoming 2023-2025 new cycle! (Due to data source reasons, some data may have slight discrepancies; please understand. Selected varieties are those available in the secondary market, excluding primary market.)

1. First, let's take a look at the top 100 cryptocurrencies in the market on March 15, 2020. Then, let's see the top 100 cryptocurrencies at the peak of the market on November 8, 2021. How many of these do you still recognize? Chart of the top 100 cryptocurrencies on March 15, 2020

It is not difficult to find that the vast majority have been replaced, with a replacement rate of 67%. The next bull market is likely to be similar. The current top 100 projects will often require new narratives to fill the gap in the next bull market.

Chart of the top 100 cryptocurrencies at the peak on November 8, 2021. Back when I was at the securities research institute, my mentor often told us, "Investing requires imagination; be bold in your assumptions and cautious in your verification." In the crypto space, I believe it requires even more out-of-the-box thinking, as returns can easily reach dozens or even hundreds of times, and only those with avant-garde idealism can achieve such results. 2. From the perspective of market capitalization rankings, in March 2020, among the top 600 cryptocurrencies, 61 100x coins were born (in the secondary market). Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies, there were a total of 11 that became 100x coins, accounting for 18%, namely #BNB, #LINK, #ADA, #DOGE, #VET, #SNX, #SOL, #THETA, #HOT, #ENJ, #LUNA. Old coins with new narratives also represent a new growth explosion point. For example, BNB and the BSC chain have moved beyond being just an exchange token.

Among the top 100-300 cryptocurrencies, 21 100x coins were born, accounting for 34.4%. Among the top 300-600 cryptocurrencies, 22 were born, accounting for 36%. There are also 7 that are too low in market capitalization to retrieve data. So overall, among the top 300, a total of 32 100x coins were born, accounting for 10.6%, a rare find.

3. From the perspective of investment institutions, only 9 have verifiable institutional investments. The proportion is quite low. The main analysis shows that the fundraising methods for cryptocurrencies at that time still followed the traditional ICO logic from 2017, with fewer institutional players. Additionally, due to the filtering logic of the secondary market, many projects had not yet issued tokens at that time. Institutions such as #Multicoin, #Polychain, #Alameda, #BN, and #A16Z later became top-tier capital in the cryptocurrency space!

4. From the perspective of unlocking and circulation. The market capitalization is concentrated in the 40%-60% range; it is not necessarily good for everything to be fully circulated, nor is it good for circulation to be very low. This is a strange phenomenon that cannot be falsified. I currently have no sufficient reason to convince myself (discussion is welcome). It is likely related to the time of emergence, with most being born in 2018, 2019, and 2020. 5. From the perspective of project establishment time. Among the 100x projects, 76% were established during the bear market cycle of 2018-2020, while only 24% were established before 2017 (the previous cycle). For projects with over 200x returns: 85% were created in 2018, 2019, and 2020. Among 100x projects, only 1.7% were created during the late bull market (2021). So from this logic, projects from 2022 and 2023 should be closely monitored.

5. From the perspective of token price, people generally prefer cheaper tokens. The lower the price, the more project tokens can be obtained for the same amount of USDT, which gives a sense of achievement or pleasure. This is a strange phenomenon, but the fact remains. Perhaps it is convenient for CX… 7. The best configuration time for 100x coins' lows is basically synchronized with BTC's lows, and the highs of 100x coins are also basically synchronized with BTC's highs. From the current situation, a second bottom around 15,000 or below is likely the best buying point for altcoins. I predict that BTC may reach a low of around 9,800 during the financial crisis in the U.S., but who really knows? It's important to have a strategy and build positions in batches.

6. In terms of track classification, the largest number of 100x coins belongs to public chains, with a total of 17, accounting for 27.8%. Among them, there are 14 L1s, 2 L2s, and 1 L0. Commentary: In the last cycle, to solve the pain points of ETH's scalability, TPS, and GAS fees, similar to the bull market of 2017, public chains saw a phenomenon of a hundred flowers blooming, among which high-performance public chains like #SOL, #MATIC, and #BNB emerged, bringing prosperity to our cryptocurrency market! From an investment perspective, investing in public chains is the choice with the highest margin for error, with numerous ecological applications. Survival and extinction are at play, but as long as a public chain develops a few super applications, it can survive long-term, which attracts investors. From this perspective, the future emergence of 100x public chains is likely to be in L2, L0, and privacy public chains. Continuing to develop L1 is actually of little significance. L2, whether it is the current OP or ARB, or future ZK, are all good options.

L0 addresses underlying interoperability, with ATOM and Layerzero belonging to this category. I previously had high hopes for DOT, mainly due to my trust in Gavin Wood, but unfortunately, the slot system deterred many projects, leading to a gradual move towards closure.

Privacy public chains have always been a direction I am optimistic about. I have consistently argued that the next DEFI SUMMER's vision is the prosperity of credit + derivatives. Our modern finance is based on credit, and the nurturing of blockchain credit will amplify the scale of the cryptocurrency market by 1000 times. Privacy public chains are indispensable, usable yet invisible.

From the current perspective, almost every privacy public chain has raised over a hundred million in financing, which is telling.

Currently, I am particularly optimistic about two: one is #ALEO (not yet launched), which has ZK technology and a well-established infrastructure, including its own development tools. The other is #ROSE, which utilizes TEE technology, a project by Professor Song, essentially focused on human investment. 9. The second largest number of 100x coins belongs to GAMEFI, with a total of 5, accounting for 8.2%. Gaming has always been a battleground for traditional WEB2, with Tencent and NetEase in the front, and miHoYo in the back. This track is the most profitable and also the best tool for educating external users to enter WEB3. Only with a large number of users and strong consensus can the cryptocurrency market continue to reach new highs, allowing institutions to better cash out. Therefore, institutions are willing to invest, making it a hotspot among hotspots. In the gaming track, there are those creating super applications, such as #AXS and #GMT, those developing gaming public chains, such as #IMX and #RON, and those creating entire gaming ecosystems, such as #GALA and #MAGIC. There are many path choices. This track is likely to be the area where the most 100x coins will emerge in the next cycle. I have identified a few potential 100x gaming varieties for the next cycle; feel free to message me.

10. The third largest number of 100x coins belongs to cross-chain, IoT (Internet of Things), DEFI, and MEME coins, with 3 each, accounting for 4.9%. Among these directions, IoT is unlikely to have much relevance in the next cycle. Cross-chain is a necessity and will definitely give rise to one or two kings. MEME coins depend on luck, but there will definitely be some; the method is to conduct more on-chain analysis and explore the connections between addresses and the ability to capture whales. This can be elaborated on later, along with tools.

DEFI is also likely to be among the top three tracks producing 100x coins in the next cycle. I am particularly focused on: the derivatives direction within DEFI, algorithmic stablecoins, credit direction, NFT lending, NFT liquidity, and the CRV ecosystem. These fields are likely to produce 100x coin varieties. Fortunately, these projects have already emerged and are continuously growing, which is promising. 11. Due to space limitations, more detailed data analysis and charts will not be elaborated here. If you liked this article, please like and share it; thank you.

I would also like to thank our team, our online crypto partners, and the community for discussing together.