Foresight Ventures Market Weekly: The market is dull, BTC ecosystem is thriving
Overview of important news for the week.Market View:
1. Macroeconomic Liquidity
Monetary liquidity is tightening. The U.S. January PCE core price inflation exceeded the previous value, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike on March 16 has increased to 30%. The market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to 5.5%, slightly higher than the previous 5.4%. The U.S. may delay interest rate cuts to March 2024, instead of December 2023. The U.S. dollar index has risen, putting pressure on the prices of risk assets. U.S. stocks continue to decline, while the crypto market is performing better than U.S. stocks.
2. Overall Market Trends
Top 100 Market Cap Gainers:
This week, the market showed weak fluctuations, with strong altcoins experiencing a downturn. U.S. regulatory measures have intensified, and market hotspots are focused on the BTC ecosystem and stablecoins.
TRU: Truefi is a U.S. unsecured lending protocol that requires a whitelist for borrowing. The team behind it is Trusttoken, the same team behind the stablecoin TUSD. Binance is destroying BUSD to mint TUSD, which has surpassed FRAX in market cap and may become Binance's preferred stablecoin.
ALEX: Increased ninefold in the past month. ALEX is part of the BTC ecosystem, utilizing STX to implement smart contracts on BTC, with functionalities for trading, staking, lending, mining, and IDO launching platforms, similar to CAKE. However, the BTC ecosystem has historically developed slowly due to technical issues.
AGIX: The AI leader has recently launched the IDO project RJV, which requires staking the AGIX token. RJV is a project researching human immortality through AI, with investment from pharmaceutical giant Pfizer.
3. BTC Market Trends
3.1 On-chain Data
The number of BTC holders has not changed significantly, and on-chain activity has shown a net increase. BTC held for more than six months is currently in a state of extreme dormancy, with many seasoned holders remaining cautious. The rise of BTC NFTs has created new demand for block space, which may persist in the long term.
Funds continue to exit the market. Overall, the market is still in a phase of capital stock game. TUSD's market cap has surpassed FRAX, becoming the fifth-largest stablecoin, as BUSD faces stringent U.S. regulations, prompting Binance to seek TUSD as a substitute for BUSD.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore, based on the total market cost, reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is above 6, it indicates a top range; when below 2, it indicates a bottom range. MVRV has fallen below the critical level of 1, indicating that holders are generally in a state of loss. The current indicator is 0.28, moving away from the green accumulation zone.
3.2 Futures Market Trends
Futures funding rate: This week, the rate is positive, indicating that the market is mainly bullish. The rate is 0.05-0.1%, with a lot of long leverage, suggesting a short-term market top; the rate is -0.1-0%, with more short leverage, indicating a short-term market bottom.
Futures open interest: This week, total open interest remained flat with a slight increase, as market leaders are observing.
Futures long-short ratio: 1.8. Retail investors are quite bullish, and retail sentiment often acts as a contrarian indicator; levels above 1.7-2.0 are considered risky. The long-short ratio data is highly volatile, reducing its reference significance.
3.3 Spot Market Trends
This week, BTC continues to fluctuate within the range of 23,000-25,000. U.S. inflation exceeded expectations, severely impacting market confidence. BTC has attempted to break through 25,000 multiple times without success, seeking support at 21,500, but the long-term rebound trend remains intact. As long as BTC does not experience a significant drop, it can provide a stable market environment conducive to narrative development across various sectors.
Market Data:
1. Total Locked Value of Public Chains
2. TVL Proportion of Each Public Chain
This week, TVL changed little compared to last week, slightly decreasing by 0.11 billion. Among layer 2 public chains, Arbitrum continued to rise by 3.8%, with TVL increasing to 1.97 billion; Optimism saw the largest increase, with TVL reaching 1 billion, up 10.76% compared to last week. Avalanche experienced a 7-day decline of 6.81%.
3. Locked Value of Each Chain Protocol
3.1 ETH Locked Value
3.2 BSC Locked Value
3.3 Tron Locked Value
3.4 Avalanche Locked Value
3.5 Polygon Locked Value
3.6 Arbitrum Locked Value
3.7 Optimism Locked Value
4. Historical ETH Gas Fees
Current on-chain transfer fees are approximately $0.9, Uniswap trading fees are about $8.19, and Opensea's trading fees are around $3.42. This week, gas fees have significantly decreased, and market activity continues to fluctuate; among them, Blur's activity level has maintained last week's trend, with gas consumption now in the top position, surpassing the Uniswap router.
5. Changes in NFT Market Data
5.1 NFT Index Market Cap
5.2 NFT Market Trading Overview
5.3 NFT Market Trading Situation
The total market cap of the NFT market began to rise this week, and the number of sales transactions has also shown a significant rebound. Blur's popularity continues to climb, with its market share increasing from last week, almost matching that of Opensea. Meanwhile, the number of NFT buyers has significantly decreased this week.
6. Latest Financing Situation of Projects
Foresight Ventures supports innovative and disruptive Web 3 projects. We believe that future innovations will be defined by cryptographic technology. As early investors, we hope to participate in the growth of projects and provide extensive support from our ecosystem.
Official Website: foresightventures.com
Disclaimer: All articles from Foresight Ventures are not investment advice. Investment carries risks; please assess your personal risk tolerance and make prudent investment decisions.
