How did the ETH price perform during the Shanghai upgrade?

Author: L, Laura

Compiled by: Chi, Daling Think Tank

This article is compiled for reference only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any investment instruments or to enter into any transactions, nor does it constitute financial, legal, tax, investment advice, investment consulting opinions, or other opinions.

Ethereum (ETH) is the second-largest cryptocurrency asset after Bitcoin, and its value has skyrocketed since its inception. The price of ETH rose from $0.311 at its launch in 2015 to around $4,800 at the end of 2021, before dropping to the current level of about $1,327—experiencing many fluctuations along the way.

Despite the poor performance of the crypto market throughout 2022, with competitors and other factors causing ongoing volatility, it is crucial to understand the future direction of the altcoin pioneer—Ethereum—in the new year and beyond. There is a general belief that as the first smart contract blockchain, Ethereum will weather this testing period.

Therefore, in this article, we will delve into Ethereum's price predictions. What is The Merge, and what impact will it have on ETH's price trends? We will learn about the latest developments in the PoS transition and what other factors may affect price predictions. Finally, we will summarize the predictions of renowned analysts and platforms.

What is Ethereum (ETH)?

Ethereum, like Bitcoin and Dogecoin, is one of the cryptocurrencies that is well-known even outside the cryptocurrency community. It is the largest altcoin and the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

Launched by Vitalik Buterin in 2015, Ethereum is one of the most feature-rich and interesting decentralized open-source blockchains, capable of enabling the programmability of smart contracts. The smart contracts created by Ethereum's founder are an innovative idea aimed at enhancing transaction security and reducing costs.

Scalability, programmability, security, and decentralization are all characteristics of Ethereum. As a result, it has become the preferred blockchain for most developers and enterprises due to its strong fundamentals.

Ethereum is a vital component of the cryptocurrency market, and without it, many of the top applications and services that have gained popularity in recent years would not exist. Ethereum's innovations have provided a starting point for trends such as fundraising on the blockchain, decentralized applications (DApps), decentralized finance (DeFi), and non-fungible tokens (NFTs).

In addition to being an amazing innovative technology, Ethereum (ETH) is also a great investment asset and is one of the most successful and reliable cryptocurrencies in the field. Ethereum has a plethora of cool features and future plans—this is why this cryptocurrency is so popular among investors.

At the end of the day, what sets ETH apart from other assets are its various use cases, and this list continues to grow every year. ETH is not just a speculative asset; it has real value. As long as the team behind the token continues to develop the blockchain and introduce new innovative features, Ethereum can continue to grow and thrive.

Ethereum vs. Bitcoin

Financial experts suggest that if you want to invest in cryptocurrency, starting with the two most well-known cryptocurrencies on the market—Bitcoin and Ethereum—is a good choice.

However, it is important to note that they not only have technical differences but also offer two completely different value propositions for investors.

Many investors view Bitcoin as a store of value, often referred to as "digital gold," which can be used as a hedge against inflation. Bitcoin is the first cryptocurrency, and the average price of one Bitcoin is currently around $23,000.

On the other hand, Ethereum is a software platform that allows developers to build other cryptocurrency-related applications on it. Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum has no supply cap. Many investors buying ETH believe that the network will continue to be used and expanded by developers. The entry point for purchasing this cryptocurrency is much lower than that of Bitcoin, especially with the recent price drop. The price of ETH currently hovers around $1,200.

In terms of market capitalization, ETH is 48.2% of BTC's market cap. However, in terms of trading volume and total transaction fees, ETH leads BTC in both areas. The rise in the average transaction size of ETH is in stark contrast to the downturn of 2022. Due to a significant influx of funds into the spot and derivatives markets, ETH surpassed Bitcoin in July. Additionally, on August 2, Deribit's Ethereum options open interest (OI) was priced at $5.6 billion, 32% higher than Bitcoin's OI of $4.6 billion. This marked the first time in history that ETH surpassed BTC in the options market.

Some investors believe that the second-largest cryptocurrency has outperformed the king of cryptocurrencies (BTC) and has become the most popular cryptocurrency. A quick division of trading volume by the market cap of the two cryptocurrencies reveals that Ethereum's relative trading volume is indeed greater than that of Bitcoin. Recently, Ethereum's spot market activity also surpassed that of Bitcoin, becoming the most traded asset on Coinbase.

High returns often come with high risks. Both of these cryptocurrencies are highly speculative assets, and caution should always be exercised when investing.

The Ethereum Merge and Everything In Between

One thing that must be mentioned about this popular cryptocurrency is Ethereum's Merge (Ethereum 2.0). Eberhardt previously referred to The Merge, which was ultimately completed around 7:45 AM on September 15, 2022, and is considered "one of the most influential events in cryptocurrency history by technically and economically impacting Ethereum."

The transition from a proof-of-work (PoW) to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus mechanism changed the way transactions on the Ethereum blockchain are validated. Validators no longer use miners that consume a lot of computational power to validate and create new blocks; instead, they stake their native Ethereum to the network, ultimately reducing Ethereum's energy consumption by about 99.95%.

PoS will also improve Ethereum's economics, as under PoW, Ethereum issued 5.4 million ETH to miners each year, but it will only issue about 500,000 ETH to investors. This shift can reduce inflation, making Ethereum more deflationary, as a portion of the fees from each transaction will be burned, lowering the overall supply of ETH and increasing its upward momentum in the future.

While the market and many ETH holders have been anticipating The Merge, miners on the blockchain have also had some concerns, as they would lose a significant amount of potential income after the switch to PoS.

As a result, some miners came together to create PoW-Ethereum (ETHW), a fork of Ethereum that operates on a proof-of-work consensus mechanism. On September 12, 2022, this group—self-styled as ETHW Core—announced on Twitter that its mainnet would launch within 24 hours after the Merge. This came to fruition, with ETHW briefly valued at around $13.45 on September 16.

While this is not the first time ETH has experienced a fork—such as the fork that helped create Ethereum Classic (ETC).

Part of the reason for Ethereum's initial slump after the Merge may be concerns that changes in blockchain operations could lead to more regulation, at least in the United States.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Gary Gensler, chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), stated that the new operational approach could lead to it being classified as a security. A lawsuit brought by the SEC suggests that the blockchain may fall under its jurisdiction.

There is also the possibility of something going wrong due to the Merge, causing significant reputational damage to Ethereum—although it has been running smoothly so far. For example, the blockchain could experience a failure, or one of the new validators could act maliciously, damaging the system's reputation.

If this were to happen, the blame from investors and developers would likely fall on Ethereum itself, which could lead to people pulling their assets out, resulting in what would almost certainly be a collapse, potentially damaging the crypto market.

Another issue is non-fungible tokens (NFTs). Since most NFTs are based on the Ethereum ecosystem, the various forks may confuse some NFT holders about what they actually own and where it is located. This, in turn, could lead to an increase in NFT scams.

Ethereum Price Performance

After experiencing a prolonged stagnation in 2018 and 2019, Ethereum rebounded and had a relatively strong performance at the end of 2020 and in 2021. By the end of 2021, it had increased by 200% compared to its peak in 2017, primarily driven by the explosive rise of NFTs and DeFi. Early investors saw their investments triple each year due to high returns.

However, the current price level has dropped by about 70% compared to the historical high of $4,878.26 recorded in early November 2021. Nevertheless, Ethereum remains a significant player in the NFT, DeFi, and even Metaverse ecosystems.

After nearing $5,000 in 2021, Ethereum fluctuated for most of 2022. Despite the approaching Merge, the crypto asset market turned bearish, especially after the collapse of Terra LUNA and UST in May. The price of ETH saw a significant decline in the first half of the year.

ETH price before and after the Merge (Source: CoinMarketCap)

At the beginning of 2022, the price of ETH was $3,683.05, rising to $3,876.79 on January 4, 2022. It then turned lower, dropping to $2,308.91 on February 24, 2022, amid a sell-off in the crypto asset market.

The market attempted to recover again, trading at $3,573.96 on April 3, 2022, but ETH could not maintain its gains and turned lower once more. Following the collapse of Terra LUNA, the price of ETH fell below $2,000 on May 12, reaching $1,748.30.

Further sell-offs drove the price down to $896.11 on June 18, 2022, the lowest level since the end of 2020. The price then rebounded, trading around $1,640 on September 15, the day of the Ethereum Merge. However, within 24 hours, the price sharply declined, with its value around $1,450 on September 16.

After rebounding to a high of $1,661.33 on November 4, the decline continued, primarily due to a series of positive Ethereum news, such as Google's node hosting service, Vitalik Buterin's new roadmap for The Scourge phase, along with an overall boost to the crypto asset market—partly triggered by crypto enthusiast Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter.

This was a brief surge, as everyone knew what happened the following week—FTX's collapse. This news caused ETH to plummet from a daily high of $1,574.80 on November 8 to a low of $1,083.29 the next day. Since then, the price has been fluctuating.

Can ETH Reach $10,000 in 2023?

If ETH reaches $10,000 in 2023, it would represent approximately a 6.5-fold return at the current price level. Given that this cryptocurrency has returned over 50 times from a low of under $100 in 2020 to a historical high of nearly $4,900 in 2021, a 6.5-fold return cannot be considered entirely impossible. However, for ETH to achieve such a massive return, everything would need to go smoothly in 2023.

ETH's return from its low in 2020 to its high in 2021 was over 50 times (Source: TradingView)

According to DeFi Llama, there are currently only about $41 billion of crypto assets locked in Ethereum-based smart contracts, down from $150 billion at the end of 2021/beginning of 2022. For ETH to reach $10,000, it may need to rise about tenfold from its current level.

Conversely, some predict that by 2023, ETH's value could be as low as $1,045.47, which would be the worst-case scenario at the bear market bottom.

Ethereum Price Predictions

Before considering Ethereum (ETH) price predictions, we have covered most of the important information you need to know, along with detailed market analysis, historical price data, and ETH technical analysis. If you are genuinely interested in ETH, now is the time to pay closer attention to it.

Based on our predictions for Ethereum's price in 2025, as more collaborations and integrations emerge on the Ethereum network in the near future, its price is expected to rise. The minimum and maximum price levels for ETH in 2025 are projected to reach around $2,921 and $3,589, respectively, with an average trading price of $3,255.

According to our analysis, Ethereum's future looks very promising in the long term. Our prediction for ETH's price in 2030 suggests that it may peak and potentially reach a significant high of $7,650 in 2030. Meanwhile, the minimum and average values for ETH in that year may be around $6,795 and $7,222, respectively.

Experts' price predictions for Ethereum vary widely. Now let's take a look at the views of well-known platforms and analysts regarding Ethereum's price predictions for 2025 and 2030.

Ethereum Price Predictions for 2025

Although predicting the price of a volatile cryptocurrency can be challenging, most cryptocurrency holders and experts agree that ETH could eventually return to these historical highs.

• Improvement in macroeconomic conditions
• Continued growth in the adoption and development of cryptocurrencies
• A clearer regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, paving the way for higher levels of crypto asset projects.
• PricePrediction maintains a bullish long-term forecast for Ethereum, predicting that ETH could be worth around $1,808.71 in 2023, $2,705.67 in 2024, and $4,086.73 in 2025.

On the other hand, Trading Beasts' price prediction for ETH is less optimistic, suggesting that due to its historically bearish price, it may only reach $2,055.851 by 2025.

Finder.com recently released the latest version of its Ethereum price prediction survey. According to an analysis by a panel of 55 experts, Ethereum could potentially rise above $5,000 by the end of 2025.

According to Changelly, the minimum expected price for ETH in 2025 is $7,336.62, while the maximum possible price is $8,984.84. The average price is expected to be around $7,606.30.

Gov Capital predicts that ETH could reach below $3,587.64 by the end of 2023, then climb to around $6,560.37 by the end of 2024, and between $9,547.63 and $9,547.64 by the end of 2025.

DigitalCoinPrice has also predicted Ethereum's price for 2025, stating that ETH could reach $5,495.53 that year, which is lower than Gov Capital's 2025 ETH price prediction. DigitalCoinPrice also forecasts that ETH's price could average $2,878.65 in 2023 and $4,134.16 in 2024.

CoinDCX predicts that 2025 could be a relatively successful year for ETH, as there may not be significant adverse effects on the asset. Undoubtedly, bulls may be in a favorable position and maintain significant upward momentum throughout the year. It is expected that by the end of the first half of 2025, the asset will reach $11,317, although a brief pullback may occur.

However, you must remember that this year is 2025, and many of these predictions are based on the successful performance of Ethereum 2.0. Moreover, long-term cryptocurrency price predictions are often made using an algorithm, meaning they can change in an instant. Therefore, be sure to do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Ethereum Price Predictions for 2030

Even with newer and more environmentally friendly technologies being developed, analysts often claim that despite new competition, Ethereum's "first-mover advantage" will lead to long-term success. Price predictions seem plausible, as, in addition to the updates predicted, Ethereum is expected to be used more frequently in the development of DApps than before.

DigitalCoinPrice predicts that based on historical data, Ethereum's price could reach around $17,220.33 by 2030.

PricePrediction's forecast for Ethereum's price in 2030 suggests that it could soar to $28,039.38.

Changelly's price prediction for Ethereum in 2030 estimates that the minimum and maximum ETH prices could be $48,357.62 and $57,877.63, respectively. Therefore, on average, you can expect ETH's price to be around $49,740.33 in 2030.

There are also some extremely bullish long-term Ethereum predictions. For example, Crypto-Rating predicts that by 2030, Ethereum's value could exceed $100,000.

Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital, and Nigel Green, founder of deVere Group, also predict that ETH's price will reach $100,000 in the next decade.

The network's interoperability, security, and transaction speed will undergo fundamental changes due to the Ethereum Merge. If these and other related reforms can be successfully implemented, the outlook for ETH will shift from slightly favorable to strongly bullish. This would provide Ethereum with the opportunity to completely rewrite the rules of the game in the crypto world.

Is Now a Good Time to Buy ETH?

Many investors wonder whether they should wait for new bear market lows to buy in or jump in now to avoid missing further upside opportunities. History shows that a buy-and-hold strategy may be more profitable in the long run. If Ethereum is above $5,000 a few years from now, investors will not be overly concerned about whether they bought ETH at $800, $1,000, or $1,300 during the bear market.

Conclusion

Overall, most experts hold an optimistic view of Ethereum's price. Few other cryptocurrencies possess all these qualities. Even if the cryptocurrency market is affected by strict regulations, Ethereum will still have the potential to remain relevant and be a worthy investment.

The aforementioned Ethereum price predictions indicate that ETH has solid growth potential, with most forecasts suggesting significant growth for ETH in the coming years. Our conclusion is that Ethereum's projected growth is sure to reach very high levels.

However, ETH's future may not follow the predictions here. Just as most investors expected Ethereum to bottom out at $3,500 earlier this year, ETH briefly fell below the dreaded $1,000 threshold.

Finally, we kindly remind you that due to the unpredictability and volatility of the cryptocurrency market, all cryptocurrency price predictions should be approached with caution to be fair. Before making any investments, be sure to look at the latest market trends, news, fundamental and technical analysis, and expert opinions.