The 2023 seen through the eyes of crypto OGs: DEX, cross-chain, Bitcoin payments, self-custody wallets, etc

Original Title: 《Forkast Forecasts 2023》

Author: Forkcast

Compiled by: SevenUpDAO

NFTs will gain more utility and become the cornerstone of Web3.

With the highly anticipated blockchain games launching in 2023, we can see the next opportunity to attract a new generation of crypto users.

After the FTX collapse, as cryptocurrency investors turn to self-custody, people will understand the true value of Bitcoin, beyond just hype and price speculation.

With the FTX crash prompting stricter regulations, Caroline Bowler of BTC Markets believes that cryptocurrency could become mainstream within the next 18 months.

2023 could be a year for decentralized exchanges and more advanced cross-chain applications.

Gary Liu, Founder of Artifact Labs: NFTs as the Cornerstone of Web 3.0

The most exciting thing in 2023 will be the invention of new applications for blockchain technology, including NFTs.

There will be many innovations in the future. We must recognize that NFTs are not just a new category of digital assets. Frankly, they are the cornerstone of Web3. Therefore, during this period, you will see builders, entrepreneurs, and investors putting money and energy into pipelines, investing in the infrastructure that will enable Web3 to scale in the future.

We will invent different types of applications for NFTs. They are not just images where you put money in and hope they appreciate over time. They are not merely speculative assets; they will actually become building blocks that, when assembled, will form the next version of the decentralized internet.

Institutions Will Use NFTs to Protect Their Intellectual Property

Fundamentally, NFTs are a way to create and protect IP in the digital world, and that is their fundamental innovation. When we look back at history, we realize that there are too many IPs that should be protected in this way and can play a role in Web3. I expect that in the coming years, more and more historical organizations, cultural institutions, and brands will implement IP protection in the real world. Of course, everyone is doing this now, and we need to protect our IP in the digital world. Before the emergence of blockchain technology and NFTs, there was really no good way to do this. Therefore, I do hope that more and more of this historical IP will be transferred to the Web3 world and NFTs.

New NFT Collections Will Need More Intrinsic Value to Survive

The market is now saturated. We have seen many blue-chip NFTs, along with a large number of other NFTs. Especially in a sluggish market, it has proven that everything else cannot really hold its value… so I think we will evolve into a world where NFTs must truly have utility. They must be more valuable, rather than just a group of people saying they are valuable. The asset itself or the underlying asset it represents must have intrinsic value. This will drive NFT innovation.

Yat Siu, Founder of Animoca Brands: Gaming Will Drive Mass Adoption of Cryptocurrency

Gaming will develop faster than this year, even though gaming has already dominated this year. The reason is the quality of the games being launched now… a good game takes years to develop, so games that started development a few years ago are now starting to come out.

We will see a wave of high-quality games emerging in the market, which will lead to more mass adoption. Therefore, this will fully take effect at some point in 2023, possibly extending into 2024. Thus, we should expect that there will actually be hundreds of millions of users entering the space as a result.

The Metaverse Makes a Comeback

For example, when people launch products and sell things on Sandbox, they generate revenue. The metrics in the metaverse are now not just about your trading volume, but also about employment. How many people are actively engaged in economic activities? All of this is developing in a very exciting way. We are setting the stage for what could be a very strong 2023.

Metaverse and Blockchain Interoperability Will Gain More Attention

Just as there will be many metaverses, interoperability between chains will also increase. We can see today that chains that choose to adopt a lower interoperability approach are actually becoming smaller. They have not really managed to break through. Now everyone is talking about interoperability because they realize that without it, they cannot grow. It's a bit like a nation-state; if you don't join the WTO, you cannot develop. You must be able to trade items with each other, essentially sharing value and expanding the overall market.

Four years ago, there were attempts to become the dominant player. If you remember the stories from a few years ago about "Ethereum killers." Now, I think no one is talking about becoming an "Ethereum killer." Everyone is talking about accessing Ethereum.

Brian, Founder of Sandbank: Investors Will Recognize the True Value of Bitcoin

The growth of the Lightning Network and the use of Bitcoin in developing countries is accelerating, and the Korean people recognize this as a reason for the rapid rise in Bitcoin prices. This is not only due to its deflationary nature but also because of its utility. The global demand for Bitcoin is emerging from Korea. So people have realized that it is very important to hold assets in their own hands, using hardware wallets or personal wallets. They know the true value of Bitcoin, and they are learning about it and researching it. Fiat currencies and all these randomly issued altcoins will eventually burst at some point. Perhaps Bitcoin or some other major altcoins will be able to survive in the next decade.

Cryptocurrency Investors Turn to Self-Custody

There are not that many long-term holders in Korea… I haven't seen many people using hardware wallets or personal wallets, even in software form. But since the FTX incident, more and more people are using and buying hardware wallets.

In the past four or five years, I haven't seen Korean investors react this way. When the Terra-Luna incident happened, there was no such reaction. So yes, people are very cautious about protecting their assets. They are withdrawing assets from exchanges and using these hardware wallets to securely hold their assets.

2023 May Bring More Functional Blockchain Applications Beyond Financial Innovation

I see many startups still interested in the future of blockchain technology. They want to use Bitcoin or Ethereum networks to build a new type of business that helps innovate people's daily lives, not just in finance… I still hope that the CEOs of these startups can innovate. When the market thrives again, they will emerge. There will be more focus on these individuals and what they are doing to innovate the entire crypto industry. I don't know if this will take a year or two, but perhaps it will be when the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates again next year.

Caroline Bowler, Founder of BTC Markets: Mainstream Adoption Will Increase in the Next 18 Months

There is already a momentum for change at play. When we look at some data from our exchange, we find that particularly among the older demographic, those aged 65 and above, their scale and investment size are even larger than those in their 30s and 40s, which is a predicted investor group… We might see new investors cooling off in the first 3 to 6 months of 2023. But I do believe we will see this become mainstream in the next 12 to 18 months.

The FTX Collapse Will Lead to Stricter Regulatory Frameworks

We expect to see some quite strict regulations come into play. From an industry perspective, we are concerned that we do not want to see regulators overreach. This is an advantage for jurisdictions that have already established regulations. I think of Singapore here. I think of the European Union—they know what they are dealing with. They know what will happen. Of course, Europe's approach of leaving space for innovation is not about trying to regulate innovation out of the economy. This approach may serve many developed economies well, and certainly as an industry. This is the approach we hope to see approved in Australia.

Centralized Exchanges Will Still Have a Place

I am very optimistic about centralized exchanges, not just because I am the CEO of one. Rather, I look at human history and human behavior. There is a reason banks exist instead of hiding money under pillows. And that human desire to not have to focus or worry about self-custody will still exist in the short term. Therefore, if you look at the next one to three years, possibly five years down the line, I think DeFi (decentralized finance) is great; it is definitely a model that we will see a certain proportion of people turning to.

I am very excited about the opportunities that exist in that space. However, not everyone wants to self-custody. Not everyone wants to take that step themselves. They rely on others to manage their finances. In fact, that is why we hire financial advisors… so it will be a matter of consumer choice or investor choice.

Buchman, Founder of Cosmos: Decentralized Exchanges Will Gain Prominence After the FTX Collapse

The FTX collapse further proves the builders' argument that we need decentralized, trustless, verifiable solutions, as these irresponsible and opaque centralized exchanges are clearly prone to fraud, misuse of user funds, and abuse of their trust, which needs to come to an end to some extent. We need to use these decentralized, verifiable solutions more.

DeFi Will Integrate More with Real-World Payment Systems

There are some truly effective foundational DeFi (decentralized finance) protocols. There seems to be an opportunity to build integrations that support real-world businesses on this foundation. We are pushing a special approach we call collaborative finance, rather than decentralized finance that leverages real-world payment systems, supporting real-world obligation networks and trade credit economies, which can help small and medium-sized enterprises with their liquidity needs and realize the potential of blockchain technology as a payment solution, not just all these speculative tools.

Advanced Cross-Chain Applications Will Launch on IBC

The Inter-Blockchain Communication Protocol (IBC) is a universal communication protocol. Token bridging is just one application on IBC, but we are starting to see the launch and adoption of other applications. These include methods for sharing security on the Interchain, where the security of one blockchain can be used on another blockchain, or more advanced controls from one blockchain to another. Therefore, one blockchain can control another account… We will see the growth of more advanced applications based on IBC in 2023, and people may begin to understand that this is not just token bridging; it is universal cross-chain communication.