The cryptocurrency market continues to fluctuate, and these eight potential projects are worth paying attention to

Original Author: knower

Original Title: 《The Golden Bullrun》

Translation: Gu Yu, Chain Catcher

Anyone who has looked at charts over the past few weeks knows that things have been very bad. Whether in a bull or bear market, many coins are stuck in a very harsh range, punishing anyone who is not an experienced trader—like myself. I have been busy with crypto work and learning lately, so my portfolio hasn't been adjusted for some time.

I firmly believe that the market will continue to oscillate in the coming months, but I am optimistic that BTC can break out of its range and at least attempt to gain its rightful market value at some point soon. After Evmos unfortunately failed to spark a bull market in the Cosmos ecosystem, it has been very tricky to identify any narratives recently. Despite these issues, I believe that when the market eventually rebounds, Cosmos may outperform other alternative L1s, but I won't be participating as I see more promising opportunities elsewhere.

DeFi has also been in a very unstable state, especially after the disastrous exit of Andre Cronje from Solidly, which left a bad taste in everyone's mouth due to the apparent connection with Danielle Sesta. Even though the Curve wars have calmed down, the dream remains very much alive in my eyes.

Last month, I wrote an article detailing some possible steps to achieve a DeFi revival, tentatively titled DeFi 3.0—this has yet to materialize, but I still hold hope. CRV and CVX will always hold a special place in my heart as they ignited my passion for DeFi and provided a platform for my writing. Despite the less-than-ideal price action, Curve remains a powerful force in DeFi and is likely to continue being a strong driver, assuming Uni V3 doesn't absorb too much market share.

Protocols like Dopex are most likely to rekindle interest in DeFi, even though the market has not favored their tokens. Beyond existing protocols, I am interested in seeing the integration of NFT, GameFi, and DeFi, as these possibilities are incredibly exciting. I hope we can move past this strange phase, as GameFi will eventually become very cool.

I would be surprised if BTC and ETH regain their highs by the end of this quarter. Right now, my GBTC and ETHE are deep underwater, and my final retirement fund in my Roth IRA is struggling to maintain its value.

Promising Protocols and "Things"

While I will try to keep this list relatively concise, all the protocols I mention are A) upcoming catalysts or B) things that have recently piqued my interest, regardless of whether there are tokens available. I went through a phase where I felt the entire cryptocurrency space was disenfranchised. I began to lose confidence in the extremely scary side of financial markets, preparing to sell it off, write as much as possible, and have almost zero contact with anything.

I continued to read and take notes (a lot), digging through documentation and Medium articles as much as possible. In the process, I began to find the spark that drew me into this space. Beneath the -75% wreckage brought by altcoin charts and terrible token launches, I discovered some magic. Here are just some of my current favorites, and I don't intend to over-explain any of them—I just want to put them on your radar. Let's dive in.

Alkimiya

Alkimiya is a new protocol dedicated to enhancing capital efficiency. In their own words, Alkimiya is "a permissionless open-source protocol for consensus capital markets."

Given the difficulties in the entire cryptocurrency mining situation, Alkimiya is creating a platform that allows "consensus producers" to create financial contracts backed by consensus rewards, providing them with a way to earn returns upfront.

Alchemix Finance

ALCX is a token I unfortunately failed to profit from in Q4 2021, but I still support the protocol, as they are just waiting for those big green lines to appear. Scoopy Truples is a beast, and Alchemix is a very interesting concept that I believe is severely undervalued.

Here’s a post about Alchemix v2, which will certainly explain it better than I can. Alchemix v2 aims to offer more collateral tokens and yield strategies, allowing users to create their own yield aggregators within the protocol (Alchemix / Yearn^2?). Alchemix hopes to provide users with the best yields while expanding the capital efficiency offered in v1. I like to view ALCX as a long-term bet on DeFi innovation, regardless of how the token performs in the short term.

DarkFi

I really like the DarkFi Manifesto because it is one of the best pieces I have seen recently. Essentially, I really don't know what they are building. Later in the article, they mention "simple anonymous transactions" and "building organizational tools" to expand their empire.

Tornado Cash is a very cool protocol, and the narrative around privacy coins has tried and failed multiple times. The importance of anonymity and privacy will only continue to grow with each passing month, so I am really curious to see what DarkFi will bring.

Timeless Finance

Timeless Finance, created by the quirky and brilliant Zefram.eth (@boredGenius), is an upcoming protocol (I hope) that offers users a yield tokenization protocol with perpetual and negative yield tokens - PYTs and NYTs. Essentially, users will be able to hold perpetual yield claims (via PYT) and have the opportunity to hedge their DeFi positions by shorting yields (via NYT).

I have delved into their blog posts, and I have done more math in my "free" time than I thought I would, but the ability to hold perpetual yield swaps is very cool. I have learned too much about the types of value—including the material value I believe exists—and realized I know almost nothing about the math in crypto.

Aave

With the launch of Aave v3, there are broad opportunities to revive the glory of DeFi 1.0 projects. We are all very familiar with the rampant cash grabs and rug pulls that have tarnished DeFi's name, but protocols like Aave continue to impress and innovate, solidifying their status as DeFi giants.

In brief, Aave v3 offers some new features, such as a portal that allows "seamless flow of assets between Aave v3 markets and different networks." Cross-chain bridges are all the rage now (with good reason), and Aave is a powerhouse that never fails to impress me. The token has obviously only dropped for a while, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Aave return to highs under attractive market conditions, especially considering their high TVL and widespread usage. DeFi 1.0 has seen some hope over the past year, so this could ultimately become too familiar and gradually fade away. Just as YFI saw a brief surge, AAVE could experience something similar, so be cautious and don't let yourself get caught in a -30% trade if the hype disappears within a month.

LayerZero

With the rise of Alt L1s and funds trapped on unique blockchains competing with Ethereum, many issues need solutions—cross-chain bridges!

While cross-chain bridge infrastructure is still in its infancy, protocols like Synapse have made bridging between different networks relatively easy and intuitive, even for communities like CT (Crypto Twitter) that face technical (and mental) challenges. After building in the shadows for a while, LayerZero has launched and is ready to absorb traffic. LayerZero is "a full-chain interoperability protocol designed for lightweight messaging across chains." LayerZero allows for bridging with fewer clicks and almost immediate access to your funds, which is often challenging and troublesome for current crypto infrastructure.

While there is a token (STG), it has been bought by a few whales, and then the secondary market was purchased, but it comes at a premium. I am optimistic about the technology, but I think it's fair to wait for some hype to settle and lower the bids, or if you think it's appropriate, try LPing, as this is often a very profitable practice for new tokens and markets. I am bullish on cross-chain bridges; without them, we will accomplish nothing!

Lido

With the highly anticipated Ethereum merge to PoS looming, Lido has become the talk of the space. For those unfamiliar, Lido Finance offers a liquid staking alternative to the expensive 32 ETH required to become an Ethereum validator. Lido's competitive advantage comes from the liquidity opportunities of your staked funds, allowing users to access ETH and interact with other DeFi protocols while still validating the network through Lido. Despite ETH and its terrible price action, I still believe the merge will be a bullish event that will help Ethereum ultimately seize the throne (as the ultimate second-largest cryptocurrency) and maintain distance from its competitors.

Lido's native token LDO has also been heating up, rebounding from lows and leading in a market troubled by macro concerns and geopolitical tensions. While issues surrounding token issuance and unlocking funds remain, it is hard to underestimate Lido's over $15 billion in deposits, which continue to generate tens of thousands in daily revenue. Token economics is a very hot topic in cryptocurrency, and the lack of a lock-up plan will hinder LDO from achieving double-digit growth, which is no secret. But when have we ever cared about bad token economics in the past? A few weeks ago, I didn't heed my own advice and was bullish on LDO, but I still believe we are likely to see something around 1.5x from here.

Wassieverse

While Wassies is an older NFT project, I believe the pricing of quality NFT projects will revive, providing community awareness for their holders. It’s hard to pinpoint what makes Wassie look so special, but once you browse the collection and interact with some Wassie PFPs on CT, it’s hard to deny their influence and appeal.

In addition to Wassies, there are Tubbycats, which might be the most robust money you can grab on Earth right now. 1 Tubby = 1 Tubby, which is the golden ratio in my eyes.

Another anticipated project is about to launch, which is the 3D avatar Anata NFT project, aimed at everything from streaming to metaverse interactions. While we don’t have a true metaverse yet, I believe the technology will continue to evolve over the next 5 to 10 years, providing us with something that resembles the metaverse described in sci-fi (like Avalanche). I am bullish on Anata, as there is clearly a lot of artwork involved, and a lot of time has been invested.

NFTs are a strange phenomenon, especially considering BAYC and the well-performing new APE tokens. NFT enthusiasts represent a completely different subset of CT, and I often find browsing their tweets to be quite strange. I don’t harbor any hatred or condemnation towards them; it’s just interesting to see how cryptocurrency evolves and extends its tendrils into various aspects of life and culture. Looking ahead, NFTs will continue to become more entrenched in our lives, regardless of the loud protests from a small group of anti-NFT activists. These digital credentials of apes, punks, and cats will continue to not burn down the rainforest and consume all the world’s energy.

Setting Trends

As mentioned earlier in the article, the narratives in cryptocurrency have become part of every speculator's discussion. We saw OHM forks leading for a brief period, followed by the Curve wars, as we sat there waiting for the flip, while alt L1s returned from 2021's lows to ridiculous multiples, making us feel increasingly guilty. By 2022, narratives seemed to come and go in an instant—remember Evmos? Yeah, neither do I.

As the hot money flowing through cryptocurrency continues to adapt and evolve into extreme adversarial market conditions, capturing and timing these narratives will become increasingly difficult. I don’t know about you, but I’m not entirely sure we will see the popular narratives spreading in CT in the short term. Market participants are eager to reclaim all their lost funds after significant pullbacks in every token. If the next bullish narrative flu ends as dramatically as Evmos did, then the sentiment on CT will become even more negative, if you can believe that.

People will try to tell you that these stories are outdated or just a fashion meant to increase exit liquidity for early investors or insiders. While there is some truth to that, early narratives can mean 100x portfolio gains.

While the market may become more PvP and nearly impossible to trade if you don’t dive deep, don’t let that stop you from completely giving up. If you feel exhausted or stressed after a rough start in 2022, take a break and come back. I assure you, the market will still be there, possibly in a place ready to let you gain more magical internet money. Another benefit of taking a break might be the potential spiritual journey you might stumble upon, ultimately freeing you from the shackles of CT.

Potential Macro Issues/Possibilities

I am far from a macro analysis expert. In fact, I don’t even consider myself a novice. If you are looking for quality geopolitical analysis related to financial markets, I highly recommend reading anything written by Arthur Hayes. His recent article (here’s a link) might be one of my favorites in the past few months, as it really breaks down the situation and describes Zoltan Pozsar's work in an easy-to-understand way. I won’t attempt to summarize it, as that might annoy many who have read it. Instead, I will provide my own opinions, which will absolutely not hold weight, and I look forward to reading this article in three months to reflect on how wrong I was.

Personally, I am a bit concerned that anything could happen above our heads, including nuclear war. Putin has lost control and any form of influence he once had (aside from nuclear weapons), and I am almost certain that Russia and its citizens will experience a recession similar to what Germany faced after World War I. Studying history is a useful tool to help you analyze markets, as it often repeats itself. Humans are sensitive creatures who do not take kindly to criticism or threats to their self-esteem—Putin is no stranger to this, as he has shown chaotic tendencies during his tumultuous reign (if you can even call it normal).

Hayes extensively comments on the concepts of internal and external currencies and explores the possibility of countries turning to hard assets like Bitcoin, gold, or other commodities after Russia is "sanctioned" by almost all Western powers. Before reading Hayes's latest work, I hadn’t even considered the implications of these events and how the world’s extremely complex and interwoven financial system might be thoroughly uprooted. It is clear that the balance of power in the world is shifting—whether this is positive or negative for cryptocurrency is really not the point and is a short-sighted topic. Of course, we all hope our internet money reaches 1000x in the next five years, but at what cost should this happen?

Hayes describes the almost inevitable possibility that American consumers will be forced to endure significant price increases on almost everything, the ongoing threat of inflation, and the widespread incompetence of governments at almost all levels. Things will get worse before they get better, but many on CT seem to completely miss the point. Yes, the transition to a financial system priced in hard assets will be fantastic for BTC holders, but what good is it when the vast majority of people will struggle more than they do now?

I hope everyone can restore peace and end Putin's horrific actions. Until then, we can only stand by and watch millions of Ukrainians being sent into hell on Earth daily, while Putin wreaks havoc on their lives with relative impunity. War is never the answer, but something must be done—I just don’t know what that is.

Conclusion

As we hold APE tokens long-term with 100x leverage, it’s important to appreciate how lucky we are to be in this position. Trading is a privilege, but it often doesn’t feel that way every time Alameda steals our lunch money and prevents us from seeking financial freedom. Whether you are building Google on-chain or engaging in high-frequency trading, cryptocurrency is undoubtedly the most "it" place to spend your time right now.

Regardless of market conditions, I will write about cryptocurrency for as long as possible. Clearly, the price action is not ideal, and that’s okay. There is too much raw innovation and bullish energy compounding in the community every day, and giving up now would be foolish. So get out there, read some documentation, talk to some founders, and try to do some of your own research. Trust me, it will only help.