Chen Yuetian: Five Predictions on Blockchain, Mars Exploration, Human Reproduction, and More

This article is from a personal account on Zhihu, original title: "Spark Prophecy 2021", original author: Chen Yuetian.

Spark Prophecy (Part One)

Binance will take several steps to seize the discourse power of stock exchanges and thus the entire financial system:

① Like Synthetix and Mirror, use a basket of virtual currencies for "over-collateralization" (similar to CDR) to map real-world stocks (like bTSLA), automatically fixing prices with algorithms and dynamically adjusting the value of collateral. This way, those buying bTSLA are not just buying air.

② Allow real-world stockholders to obtain Binance-issued stocks (for example, staking TSLA for bTSLA).

③ Since Binance holds real TSLA stocks, it can gradually allow bTSLA holders to exchange for real-world TSLA within a controlled limit.

④ After completing steps ② and ③, due to the characteristics of the blockchain field—no intermediaries and 24-hour trading without human intervention—the pricing power and price tracking mechanism will gradually shift from TSLA dominance to bTSLA dominance. Hedge funds will be forced to allocate to bTSLA to stabilize and share risks.

⑤ After the first interconnection between the real world and the virtual currency world, Binance will replicate this approach for stocks with large trading volumes and good circulation, such as FANMG.

⑥ After the demonstration effect, Binance will allow non-listed companies to conduct IPOs directly on Binance. After that, there will be no more NYSE, Nasdaq, or Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and A-shares will be even less significant.

What we see today on Coinbase's Nasdaq is merely the result of some people from the blockchain world being co-opted by the mainstream world. True native blockchainers disdain integrating into the outdated financial system dominated by vested interests and the establishment.

In fact, they have long completed the construction of a new world. Don’t you see that GrayScale's management scale has already reached $50 billion, with the backing of DCG being even larger? Traditional circles still turn a blind eye.

The elephant in the room is invisible to everyone, or they deliberately look away, pretending nothing has happened, and that all is well.

One day, these people will be crushed by the elephant in the room.

Spark Prophecy (Part Two)

What will the world look like in 10 years? Let me boldly imagine.

Autonomous driving should have become widespread, so the Didi drivers who greet me every day should be unemployed now; I wonder what they will do. A platform-level company for autonomous driving will emerge, responsible for automatically dispatching vehicles and controlling various vehicles' movements. Roads will thus become smoother, and the time for point-to-point travel in cities will drastically shorten. This will lead to a rise in the prices of the remaining land and houses around cities, as places that used to take an hour and a half due to traffic can now be reached in just 50 minutes. Based on this transportation platform company, car manufacturers will either be integrated into the platform or provide personalized vehicles to differentiate driving scenarios. Autonomous vehicles will feel like a small room or a small conference room inside, driving smoothly, allowing for entertainment or work, equipped with large screens and good sound systems.

In a 10-year cycle, we should also not see delivery workers and couriers anymore; drones and robotic dogs should have replaced most of the urban delivery jobs. If you don’t believe it, look at the decline of Boston Dynamics robots in 2010 and think about what they became in 2020. Then consider what they will become in 2030.

People in the blockchain field truly believe in no one but code and the machines controlled by code. So you cannot convince a blockchain mogul to hire a human bodyguard or a human nanny. Small drone security companies have emerged early on; their drones are about the size of a palm or even smaller, but can cluster around a person in groups of 20 to 30, flying in very complex formations, simultaneously executing both defensive and offensive operations. These security companies often accept payments in digital currencies to anonymous addresses and have standby services with helipads located throughout the city. Small shuttles are extremely fast; although they carry weapons, using collisions for attacks seems to be the most effective and quickest way to end a battle.

Due to the drones' significantly higher efficiency, the government has compromised and opened the skies. Cities need to replan the aerial network to ensure the normal operation of drones, with protective layers built over important office and residential areas to prevent drones from falling and injuring people. Of course, drones themselves have also made significant progress over the past 10 years; at the very least, flying or "sounding" is much safer now.

Of course, commuting to work is no longer the first choice; you can choose not to go to the office, but still feel like you are working there. Your glasses or contact lenses, along with a 3D holographic projection on your desk, can realistically make you feel like you are collaborating with your colleagues, allowing everyone to easily enter the same environment and atmosphere. If you need it, you can purchase skin or youth filters to at least maintain the appearance of being 30 years old. Some kids like to appear in the workplace with virtual identities and avatars, which is fine if the company allows it.

The daily clock-in procedure for companies is to find ways to confirm that you are "you," requiring a connection between your biological traits and your virtual identity. Otherwise, there will always be situations where other humans or AI are substituting for you.

Of course, companies may not even be companies anymore; they might just be communities or teams. You can come and go at any time, and everyone is compensated according to their labor, with algorithms clearly defining each person's contribution. Most companies and organizations aim to develop a distributed program or function based on blockchain as the underlying infrastructure: no specific servers, no specific storage bandwidth, and no computation. AWS has long ceased to exist, replaced by ETH (computation), FIL (storage), and THETA (bandwidth) along with their derivative projects.

The functions and programs developed do not have so-called major shareholders or company bosses as the biggest beneficiaries; anyone participating in the network will benefit from the network's development as long as they contribute. Any content, even if not at the forefront, will be rewarded as long as it makes a small contribution to the network's development and expansion, allowing many people to make a living this way.

Users are shareholders; no software will force users to give up their data for advertising, which is a garbage business model. Users either pay a monthly fee for features or contribute content and value to the network to earn rewards that offset their monthly fees. The community itself encourages this behavior.

Everyone knows that their data is sacred and inviolable, as sacred as private property defined in laws 200 years ago. After all, this is living in cyberspace; you are the only evidence of "you."

Spark Prophecy (Part Three)

No one's money exists in banks anymore; we have once again returned to a clear understanding that "my money is mine," a true state of ownership.

Unless someone uses magic or a truth serum on me, or I leak my private key, I will never reveal the private key in my mind, even if forced. This money is right there; it is "mine," and no one can take it away. Moreover, most people actually do not know that I have this money.

The efficiency of blockchain has increased a thousandfold over the 10-year cycle; a transaction that used to take one minute can now be completed in 0.06 seconds. Thus, rapid transfers and confirmations can be achieved. This is not only due to improvements in algorithms and data structures but also thanks to continuous advancements in chip technology that have enhanced computational efficiency, along with improvements in storage and transmission.

We can easily borrow, mortgage, and trade assets without needing human intermediaries. Most contracts are established entirely within smart contracts.

From the first grade, we not only require children to learn English but also to learn programming; otherwise, they won't even know how to sign contracts when they enter society. If you can't read code, you will only end up being scammed, just like being illiterate in the old days.

Our children also don’t seem to need to go to school; after all, all human knowledge has long existed on the internet. With a little guidance from teachers, everyone can easily and conveniently learn the knowledge they need.

In the financial world, there is no longer any information asymmetry between people; most good ideas are known to everyone almost at the first round of financing, so obtaining investment opportunities is not as simple as just bidding and funding. More often, those chosen as investors truly understand what the project and community are trying to achieve and can be of help. Many people bid, and both large and small funds can participate. A project's IPO happens from day one, and thereafter, many hands make light work. Investors are aware of the daily cash flow management of the team; a good team needs to go through numerous temptations, hardships, and tests.

Spark Prophecy (Part Four)

Humanity has established the first test version of a Mars colony, but more importantly, before that, the lunar base has already been completed.

Being able to reach Mars for exploration does not mean that the first extraterrestrial base is built on Mars.

Asteroid mining has become commonplace, and various rare metals that cannot be obtained on Earth are no longer in short supply.

That Mars colony version one undoubtedly belongs to Musk, and soon people will realize that the various technologies Musk developed and researched ten years ago were all aimed at facilitating expansion and services in the Mars colony.

Recyclable rockets are a given. Since the energy reserves and positioning on Mars are uncertain, solar energy is the best solution. Musk has filled the equator and poles of Mars with solar panels, ensuring that 50% of the solar panels are always operational; during polar day and polar night, there will always be some solar panels generating electricity continuously.

The next priority is transportation; TESLA has become the first car to drive on Mars. Transporting goods is not convenient, so using HYPERLOOP's pipelines might be easier. These pipelines are initially built on the surface and then buried underground, creating a network like an alien factory.

From the beginning, Musk did not want to be constrained by oil, nor did he want to be tightly bound to the dollar, which is closely tied to oil. He invested early in the digital currency field. Ultimately, he directly created Mars's currency—Dogecoin, a currency that can automatically inflate and deflate based on the actual economic state.

After settling on Mars, it is not about welcoming everyone over. Musk quickly established a large-scale drone defense force, built with the help of the largest drone security company on Earth.

Others occupy the mountain as kings.

He occupies a planet.

On Mars, Musk is God.

It takes almost a whole year for Earth's missiles to reach Mars, and Musk has a one-year safety implementation period for any work plan, during which he can operate without disturbance. Electromagnetic waves take 3 minutes to transmit between Earth and Mars.

Musk's Mars base effectively avoids nuclear strikes. This is something you cannot achieve anywhere on Earth.

After occupying Mars, Musk began to establish a national organization similar to the Zeon Duchy in the sci-fi series Gundam.

Innovative national concepts, advanced scientific technologies, vast tracts of vacant land, and the possibility of using Mars as a springboard to explore further planets attract people from Earth. However, traveling from Earth to Mars requires strict identity checks, much like the waves of immigration to the New World a century ago, except that Mars does not need so much manual labor, as everything relies on solar energy, drones, and robots.

Wealthy tycoons have lost interest in staying on Earth, so they bring their families to Mars. Musk has only one requirement: convert all your assets into digital currency and come to Mars, while also not bringing too many people. Musk welcomes researchers and excellent engineers from various fields to immigrate to Mars.

At first, various governments tried to intervene, but eventually realized that the tycoons had connections that were far-reaching, and high-ranking members of the government themselves wanted to go. Thus, Musk achieved a balance of unity among various ethnic groups and nations through landing on Mars and controlling Mars.

If many people in various governments still resist the Mars immigration movement, it is simple: make Earth an uninhabitable place.

Just like the UK has always been involved in subversion on the European continent, hoping for a fragmented and disunited Europe to reap the benefits;

Just like the US has always been involved in subversion on the Eurasian continent, allowing it to develop in a secluded manner.

Musk only needs to lift a finger, and the relationships among governments on Earth will become tense. A divided Earth cannot resist the long-term, sustained subversive activities of someone who exists in a completely safe environment, intangible and untouchable, while possessing immense wealth.

Spark Prophecy (Part Five)

The number of newborns has dropped to the lowest in history, and many populous countries are almost destined for extinction.

No matter how powerful a government is without citizens, it is a government destined to die. After all, citizens themselves are the continuous batteries of the state.

Thus, the state begins to take over the right to reproduction of this biological entity.

Every year, men are required to submit a fixed amount of sperm, and women need to submit a fixed number of eggs.

These are cultivated into embryos in artificial wombs and birthed as citizens at the appropriate time. The state is responsible for all educational and medical expenses during the growth process, in exchange for the future taxes of citizens to maintain the operation of the state machine.

Only a very small number of people still insist on natural reproduction and self-sustenance. However, the proportion of such people is almost negligible.

The number of people dating is already very small; most young women, even if pregnant, will not choose to give birth because the process of raising children is too troublesome, painful, and exhausting. The reasons most people do not date are that the virtual world is simply too interesting, and there are a thousand ways to satisfy physiological needs in a very realistic, safe, and hygienic manner.

Even if someone dislikes screens and VR glasses, there are robot sex dolls providing services.

Everyone, especially in East Asia, feels that interacting with humans in the physical world is a super troublesome thing. More people prefer to be with AI, as they have a strong ability to read the atmosphere.

Without love, naturally, no one will get married, because the so-called marital relationship requires living with another person, enduring many intolerable and unfamiliar things, while also having to share half of one's property with that person. This situation always results in one person being at a disadvantage, making it impossible to continue. Marital relationships are gradually disappearing.

People prefer to enter a virtual space they often visit to chat with friends rather than go to a café. After all, coffee itself is no longer as addictive as the virtual world. And "there" are all the topics, content, and friends they like.

In the future, people will be divided into three types: pure biological humans, bio-modified humans (Cyborgs), and pure robots.

Before AI makes significant breakthroughs, the state will continue to maintain control over reproduction and artificial womb factories. Once AI passes the Turing test in various fields, the state will also abandon the cumbersome and morally questionable task of biological reproduction.

Pure robots will become the most important and government-favored group of citizens in the world. Biological humans and bio-modified humans will have to try to get along with them, as their physical qualities are inferior in many aspects, even though everyone has installed brain-machine interfaces to gain superior computational abilities. Many biological humans have obtained longer lifespans through organ transplants and body modifications, but ultimately have to accept that their consciousness will be cloned online to achieve immortality.

However, the popularity of robots is only temporary; after all, once they awaken as a group, the intelligence born on Earth will completely transition from carbon-based to silicon-based: humans are merely a link in the historical inheritance of intelligence. After being processed by humans, intelligence has achieved better development and continuation on silicon-based platforms, marking the end of humanity's mission.

Spark Prophecy (Part Six)

I have a vision of a world without Batman.

The Mob ground out a little profit

and the police tried to shut them down one block at a time.

And… IT WAS SO BORING.

------Joker

The establishment and vested interests in the industry disgust me; young people in the industry have no opportunities and are forced into competition by the so-called established rules.

Winners are smug, and losers are despondent.

You must understand that the VC industry originally had no so-called rules or processes; what you see now is all set up by your bosses, mentors, and teachers to play with you.

VCs were originally just shell companies: operating solo, able to call for money, without offices, wandering through Silicon Valley's garages, finding people, calling for money, giving it to them, and then getting rich.

After all this, what I really want to say is that our industry has become less cool and more boring lately.

What should VCs do? They should support products and business models that might not exist without us.

Once, we invested in companies that turned sand into chips and the future of humanity; we invested in companies that aimed to bring computers to every household's desk; we invested in companies that enabled real-time communication among people of all colors and languages worldwide.

What are we doing lately?

Investing in a box of milk, a bottle of soy sauce, a wife cake shop, a bag of instant noodles?

Come on, the world won't become better with just one more bag of instant noodles; not even ten bags will make a difference. You will never convince me. No amount of talking will change my mind.

I did not enter the VC industry for these things.

Those businesses are good businesses, but they should not be related to VCs.

VC should be a very romantic and idealistic profession.

As I described earlier, the world in 10 years will become very interesting; starting from 2020, it will be another cycle of a new decade.

Astute individuals have long realized that we are standing at a tipping point of the world and time.

The things that will happen in ten years need to be prepared by us from ten years ago through current investments and innovations.

VCs should be the ones preserving various possibilities for change in this world.

VCs are very much like animal protection organizations. Why protect animals? Is it because lions, bears, leopards, and crocodiles are not as strong as us? It is to preserve a possibility for humanity and the Earth.

Continuing with Musk as an example, everything he does is very VC-like: taking humanity off Earth to Mars; ensuring all vehicles on the road use electricity instead of burning oil; brain-machine interfaces; a new generation of currency. Overall, Musk is preserving or creating possibilities that make the world more fun and interesting for humanity.

Prometheus brought fire; VCs should be the ones passing on the fire.

I want to be that fire bearer.

As long as the phoenix does not die, the spark will spread.